In the Likely Event Summary, Characters and Themes
In the Likely Event by Rebecca Yarros is a powerful story of love, resilience, and second chances set against the backdrop of extraordinary circumstances. The novel explores how fate can unite two people in the most unexpected ways, beginning with a harrowing plane crash that forever binds their lives.
Spanning a decade, the narrative follows Nathaniel, a Special Forces soldier, and Izzy, a determined young woman who becomes a political aide. Their relationship is marked by survival, separation, and reunion, colliding once again during the chaotic U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021. At its heart, this is a tale about love tested by time, duty, and tragedy.
Summary
Nathaniel Phelan, a Special Forces soldier stationed in Kabul during August 2021, finds his plans for a long-awaited vacation cut short when he is ordered to escort congressional aides visiting Afghanistan. Initially assigned to protect Greg Newcastle, his orders suddenly change—he must protect an aide named Astor.
The name shakes him, for Astor is Izzy, the only woman he ever truly loved but lost years ago. When she steps off the plane, their eyes meet, and the past surges back.
Though she wears an engagement ring and greets him formally, their reunion stirs emotions neither can ignore.
Their story stretches back to 2011. At eighteen, Izzy boards a commuter plane where she meets nineteen-year-old Nathaniel, who is heading to Army training.
They connect instantly, talking about books, movies, and family backgrounds. Their bond is abruptly tested when the plane suffers catastrophic engine failure and crashes into the Missouri River.
Nathaniel helps Izzy and others escape, leading survivors to safety. Injured but determined, Izzy relies on Nathaniel’s strength to survive the freezing water.
At the hospital, Nathaniel insists he is her husband to stay by her side, but soon the Army pulls him away before he can learn if she survives. Despite the distance, Izzy never forgets him.
Years later, they reunite by chance. In 2014, Izzy spots Nathaniel at a bar in Georgia.
Their joy is immediate, as if no time has passed. They share stories and reconnect, though Nathaniel is about to deploy again.
They exchange contact information, giving them a fragile thread of hope. In 2015, Nathaniel surprises Izzy on her birthday.
They spend the night together, acknowledging their desire but also the impossibility of a relationship given his military obligations. They part reluctantly, their feelings unresolved.
In 2016, tragedy brings them together again when Nathaniel’s mother dies. Izzy comforts him, and their grief leads to a night of passion.
Still, the looming shadow of his deployments forces them apart once more.
In 2018, after losing his best friend Julian, Nathaniel seeks clarity. He shows up at Izzy’s apartment with an engagement ring, desperate to hold onto her.
But Izzy, overwhelmed by his unstable state and rash timing, refuses. Heartbroken, he leaves, convinced their chance is gone.
Izzy regrets her decision but believes the timing was wrong.
By 2021, Nathaniel and Izzy are thrown back together in Afghanistan. Now a congressional aide, Izzy insists on searching for her sister Serena, a photojournalist who remains in the country despite the dangers.
Nathaniel, protective and conflicted, argues with her but cannot abandon her. Their mission grows more dangerous as they travel to escort Afghan girls stranded in Kandahar.
Amid rocket attacks and tense moments, Nathaniel shields Izzy, their closeness undeniable. The soldiers notice their bond, and Izzy reveals small details about him that only someone deeply connected would know.
Nathaniel’s call sign, “Navarre,” hints at the cursed love story from Ladyhawke—a reminder of their fate to be together yet apart.
As the Taliban advance, Izzy and Nathaniel’s emotions boil over. She admits she never stopped loving him, while he reveals the guilt he carries over Julian’s death.
Their love finally resurfaces, though circumstances threaten to tear them apart again. When Kabul falls, Nathaniel and his team escort Izzy through a chaotic evacuation.
At the airport, he arranges for her to leave on a secret plane, insisting she promise to go even as he stays behind. They share what feels like a final kiss, confessing their love once more.
Serena and her companion Taj make it aboard as well, and Izzy receives the chain Nathaniel carried, holding his engagement ring taped to Julian’s dog tag—proof of his enduring devotion.
Back in the United States, Nathaniel begins therapy, finally seeking help for his grief and trauma. Izzy quits politics, realizing her life lies in waiting for him, not in fulfilling her family’s ambitions.
In October 2021, Nathaniel surprises her on a flight to the Maldives, the trip they had once planned years earlier. He has left the military, ready to build a future with her.
They finally choose each other without hesitation.
The epilogue shows their life five years later in Maine. Married and at peace, Nathaniel teaches English, and Izzy works with nonprofits.
Their love endures, free from war and chaos, built on years of survival, sacrifice, and unbreakable connection. Together, they have carved out the forever they always longed for.
Characters
Nathaniel Phelan
Nathaniel emerges as a deeply layered character, shaped by trauma, duty, and love. First introduced as a disciplined and protective Special Forces soldier, his story stretches back to his youth as a working-class teenager who enlisted in the Army when college was out of reach.
His sense of responsibility defines him, whether it’s taking charge during the Missouri River plane crash or ensuring Izzy’s safety years later in Afghanistan. Yet beneath his strength lies fragility—haunted by survivor’s guilt, especially over the death of his best friend Julian, and the weight of choices made under the pressures of war.
His love for Izzy is unwavering, but often collides with his loyalty to the military, creating a cycle of separation and reunion. His call sign “Navarre,” referencing a cursed lover doomed to be apart from his beloved, captures his essence: a man destined to love fiercely yet suffer through loss and distance.
Over time, Nathaniel’s journey transforms from one of relentless sacrifice to healing, as he chooses a quieter life of teaching, finally allowing himself the peace and permanence with Izzy that he once believed impossible.
Isabel “Izzy” Astor
Izzy stands as Nathaniel’s counterpart in In the Likely Event, embodying resilience, compassion, and determination. From the terrified young woman babbling about flight statistics on their first meeting, she grows into a driven professional navigating the high-stakes world of politics.
Her privilege contrasts with Nathaniel’s humble beginnings, but she consistently proves her courage—whether sacrificing her life jacket in the plane crash or insisting on staying in Afghanistan to help Afghan women and search for her sister Serena. Izzy is not defined solely by romance; her sense of justice and loyalty to her family drive her choices, even when they bring her into danger.
Her relationship with Nathaniel is marked by both devotion and conflict—she longs for him yet pushes back when his secrecy and military life hurt her. Her refusal of his rash proposal after Julian’s death is not a rejection of love but of unstable circumstances, revealing her wisdom and self-awareness.
Ultimately, Izzy’s journey is about balance: learning when to fight for others, when to stand firm in her beliefs, and when to surrender to love that has always been her anchor.
Serena Astor
Serena, Izzy’s older sister, is a quieter but pivotal presence in the novel. As a photojournalist, she chooses to remain in Afghanistan despite escalating danger, embodying a commitment to truth and storytelling.
Her courage inspires Izzy’s determination to find her, making Serena both a literal and symbolic motivator throughout the narrative. Serena is protective of Izzy but also skeptical, often grounding her sister when emotions run high.
During Izzy’s recovery after the plane crash, she provides steady care, highlighting her role as the dependable sibling. Later, her escape from Afghanistan with Taj reinforces her bravery and resilience.
Though she doesn’t occupy as much narrative space as Nathaniel or Izzy, Serena represents persistence, the weight of family ties, and the reminder that love extends beyond romance into kinship and loyalty.
Jeremy
Jeremy, Izzy’s fiancé, is more of a narrative obstacle than a fully realized partner. His dismissive tone during phone calls, coupled with his lack of understanding of Izzy’s emotional turmoil, underscores how mismatched they are.
His presence functions as a contrast to Nathaniel—where Jeremy is detached, Nathaniel is attentive; where Jeremy dismisses Izzy’s fears, Nathaniel meets them with empathy. Jeremy’s role highlights Izzy’s inner conflict between choosing the stability her family and society expect of her and following the unpredictable, consuming love she feels for Nathaniel.
Ultimately, Jeremy fades into the background as Izzy acknowledges that her true partnership lies with the man who has been bound to her since that fateful flight.
Julian
Julian, Nathaniel’s best friend, exerts enormous influence over Nathaniel’s life despite limited on-page presence. His death during Special Forces selection becomes a defining trauma, one that Nathaniel carries with guilt and grief for years.
Julian represents loyalty and sacrifice—having literally given his life to save Nathaniel during a rattlesnake encounter. His memory lingers in every decision Nathaniel makes, from his reluctance to embrace happiness with Izzy to his ongoing sense of unworthiness.
The engagement ring taped to Julian’s dog tag symbolizes both the weight of loss and the endurance of love. Julian is a ghost in Nathaniel’s story, embodying the question of how much guilt a survivor can carry before learning to forgive himself.
Torres
Torres, Nathaniel’s fellow soldier, provides levity and camaraderie within the heavy narrative. Often teasing Nathaniel about his unresolved feelings for Izzy, Torres serves as a reminder of the brotherhood within the military—a surrogate family that sustains soldiers amid chaos.
His observations often cut through Nathaniel’s denial, highlighting truths that Nate himself resists admitting. Torres also exemplifies loyalty, supporting Nathaniel’s choices even when they are clouded by emotion.
Though secondary, he enriches the depiction of military life, showing how humor and companionship soften the edges of constant danger.
Themes
Fate and Chance Encounters
In In the Likely Event, the story continually returns to the idea that lives can change course in an instant, often dictated by chance. Izzy and Nathaniel’s first meeting aboard the ill-fated plane flight exemplifies how an ordinary day can transform into a defining moment.
The plane crash is not only a literal disaster but also a symbolic catalyst, binding the two together in a way neither could anticipate. Their survival relies on instinct, courage, and the bond that forms in seconds under extreme pressure.
Over the years, their repeated reunions—whether in a bar in Georgia, a birthday gathering in Washington, or in war-torn Kabul—suggest an almost fated pull, as though circumstances conspire to draw them back together despite the obstacles of time, distance, and personal choices. This persistent reappearance in one another’s lives underscores the novel’s exploration of destiny: some connections are so profound that they resist dissolution, no matter how fractured the path may seem.
Yet fate is not depicted as entirely benevolent; it forces them into painful confrontations, moments of loss, and choices neither feels fully prepared to make. By showing both the beauty and cruelty of these chance encounters, the book paints fate as an unpredictable force, shaping lives not by granting easy happiness but by compelling individuals to face truths they might otherwise avoid.
Ultimately, the theme of fate suggests that while circumstances may be beyond control, the decisions made in response define the lasting course of love, identity, and resilience.
Love as Both Salvation and Burden
The romance between Izzy and Nathaniel is presented not as a straightforward love story but as a complex and often painful struggle. From the start, their connection is undeniable, born in the chaos of survival and strengthened by shared vulnerability.
Yet what makes their love compelling is not its inevitability, but its weight. Nathaniel’s military career, his trauma, and his constant fear of leaving Izzy alone conflict with his need to be with her.
Similarly, Izzy’s ambition, family pressures, and political career create a tension between what she wants for herself and what she feels for him. Love in this novel is never simple—it saves them in moments of despair, grounding both in the aftermath of death, war, and separation, but it also places unbearable expectations on them.
When Nathaniel proposes after Julian’s death, it is not a joyous event but a desperate plea for stability in the wake of grief, and Izzy’s refusal demonstrates how love can sometimes be misaligned with timing. Their relationship repeatedly asks whether love alone is enough when circumstances, trauma, and obligations intervene.
At its heart, the novel suggests that love is not just an emotion but a choice—one that requires courage, sacrifice, and patience. By the conclusion, when they finally choose each other free from external pressures, love emerges as both salvation and reward, but only after years of carrying it as a burden too heavy to bear.
Trauma and the Long Road to Healing
Trauma is a pervasive theme in In the Likely Event, shaping both the characters’ inner lives and the trajectory of the plot. The plane crash leaves scars that extend far beyond physical injuries, resurfacing years later in Izzy’s nightmares and Nathaniel’s hypervigilance.
Their later experiences—Izzy’s struggle with her sister’s disappearance and Nathaniel’s years in combat—compound that initial trauma, layering grief and survivor’s guilt onto already fragile foundations. For Nathaniel, trauma manifests in silence, withdrawal, and guilt, particularly surrounding Julian’s death.
His inability to seek help or articulate his pain isolates him from Izzy, widening the gulf between them at critical moments. For Izzy, trauma surfaces as determination, channeling her pain into her work and her relentless search for Serena, but it also leaves her vulnerable to dismissive relationships and destructive choices.
The novel portrays healing as nonlinear and arduous. Moments of connection—Nathaniel comforting Izzy after her nightmares, or Izzy showing up at his mother’s funeral—offer glimpses of solace but do not erase the weight they both carry.
It is only when Nathaniel begins therapy and openly admits his struggles that the possibility of true healing emerges, both for himself and for their relationship. The theme emphasizes that trauma cannot be outrun or ignored; it must be confronted with honesty, support, and vulnerability.
The eventual peace they achieve in Maine demonstrates that while scars remain, healing is possible when pain is shared rather than hidden.
Duty, Sacrifice, and Personal Freedom
The tension between personal duty and the desire for freedom drives much of the conflict in the novel. Nathaniel embodies sacrifice through his military service, consistently placing the safety of others above his own happiness.
From leading passengers out of a sinking plane to shielding Izzy from rocket fire in Afghanistan, his sense of responsibility defines his identity. Yet this same duty robs him of the freedom to pursue love and stability, repeatedly forcing him to walk away from Izzy in moments when he most wants to stay.
Izzy faces her own version of this conflict, torn between familial expectations, her political career, and her longing for independence. Her decision to travel to Afghanistan, despite Nathaniel’s warnings, reflects her willingness to sacrifice personal safety for her mission and her sister.
Both characters grapple with the cost of loyalty—to country, to family, to ideals—and how those sacrifices fracture their personal lives. The novel ultimately argues that while duty can give life meaning, it cannot substitute for the fulfillment found in choosing one’s own path.
The final resolution, in which Nathaniel leaves the military and Izzy steps away from politics, highlights the importance of reclaiming personal freedom after years of living according to external demands. Their retreat to Maine is not an abandonment of responsibility but a deliberate act of choosing each other and the life they had long denied themselves, proving that love and personal happiness can exist only when sacrifice no longer eclipses selfhood.
